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日本の安全保障:NBR Fouram, Rod Armstrong [Our American Cousin]


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Rod ArmstrongのQuoteについて、WatanabeさんとMikeの投稿がありました。なかなか興味ある内容です。山口氏は公明党の間違い。憲法9条問題が抜けている。

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Dear Shoji,

As I have said before, I have no expertise about US-Japan security issues, but I do read the discussions on NBR's Japan Forum bulletin board.  Today I read a contribution from Mr. Rodney E. Armstrong (former consul, US Foreign Service) that I think will be provocative to the readers of your blog.  Mr. Armstrong proposes that there is a serious lack of discussion of national security issues among Japanese citizens and even military leaders.  Here are his comments, which I have slightly abridged for length:

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"Friends --

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Among politicians, with the exception of some self-appointed "defense experts" such as Ishiba in the LDP and Maehara and Yamaguchi in the DPJ, the degree of willful ignorance of national security issues is profound. Indeed, although the Defense University is headed by Dr. Iokibe, one of Japan's premier intellectuals who has a strong interest in security questions, the Japanese military establishment is so beaten down and cautious that I have never been able to engage a member of the forces in a conversation about any of the issues that matter. The Chuo Koron interview with former Vice Minister of Defense Moriya on the Futenma issue last summer revealed that the highest career official of the Defense Ministry spends most of his time (and apparently the entirety of his interest) in adjusting real estate and other interests connected with Japan's defense establishment and the Alliance. [And] there are no think tanks of any great quality to raise and debate defense issues.

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I was born before World War II roughly as far away in time from the end of the American Civil War as the Japanese are today from the end of World War II. In my home state of Indiana, the memories and divisions caused by the Civil War were still alive. The monuments were all about the Civil War; the last encampment of the Grand Army of the Republic, the northern veterans organization in Indianapolis in the late 1940s was a big event (all six former drummer boys). I went to college in South Carolina, and the culture shock was extreme.

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I think the standard figure for deaths in the Civil War is 600,000. The standard figure for the number of Japanese killed in the "Pacific War" is 3.1 million. There are an unending series of family tragedies with origins in the war that play out over the years. In my Japanese family's case, it was a brother of my mother-in-law's generation who was misplaced in the confusion of the bombing by the host family when sent for refuge to a neighboring prefecture. He missed out on education, and passed his whole working life on the Yokohama docks before being rediscovered only ten years ago. Almost everyone knows someone who was imprisoned for years after the war by the Soviets or who had ghastly experiences in getting out of Manchuria. And almost on a monthly basis, buried bombs or poison gas cylinders, or collapsed air rad shelters are discovered.

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And, to use Professor Hosoya's phrase, it was such a "foolish war." The profound ignorance and irresponsibility of the Japanese militarists became clear to all. And just when the memories began to wither, along comes General Tamogami to raise for the Japanese citizenry the possibility that even today's Japanese military officers are all as mad as Ishihara Kanji of Marco Polo Bridge fame (my apologies to Mark Peattie).

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The other side of the coin of the Japanese public's refusal to think about defense questions is their remarkable willingness to consign all Japanese security questions to the Americans. After all, we won in World War II. Despite our blunders in Vietnam---not a very important country in Japanese eyes in any case---we "won" the Cold War against Russia. The doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction may have seemed crazy to Tanaka-san, but it had the great merit of having been proven effective. Again, Iraq and Afghanistan are not countries of great concern to the average Japanese, and discussion of our problems there is confined mostly to an hour-long show on Sunday, the weekly wrap up of international coverage by NHK. I would guess that there has not been more than fourteen hours of Japanese television coverage of the entire seven years of war in Iraq.

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The average Japanese worries about the Americans abandoning Japan in the midst of all these willfully ignored dangers. I tell my friends that the American generals and admirals are not going to give up their real estate and bureaucratic empires in Japan lightly. Nevertheless, the Japanese public's fear of abandonment if their government fails to do the American bidding was the political force that led to Mr. Hatoyama's downfall.

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As a result of these public attitudes, the Japanese media ignore American strategy and security policy-making. In the July issue of The Oriental Economist (subscription only) Iinuma Yoshisuke surveyed the Japanese press and found that the 62 Japanese reporters in Washington produced only one (Mainichi) non-analytical listing of interactions on Futenma between the US and Japanese governments. A single magazine article (June Bungei Shinju) applied any critical analysis to the US case on Futenma.

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Mr. Kan's naivete is astounding. But is it any more astonishing than Mr. Hatoyama's simple-minded suggestion that the Marines might wish to put their air component on Tokushima? ("Just any old island will do!")

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Are these gaps in the Japanese perception of the world around them important? Probably not in the immediate future. We are, however, in the early (very early) stages of an arms race in Asia. The power of Chinese nationalism and what sort of appetites may be generated by Chinese hubris and nationalism are yet to be seen. It would be nice to know that our partner in East Asia had an informed public and political class qualified to help us understand East Asia and possibly serve as a brake on some of the excesses of our military-industrial complex. Mr. Iinuma notes that all the Japanese press did during the Futenma imbroglio was repeat the mantra of "the deterrent power of the Marines in Okinawa." Unhappily, there are more important issues down the road than Futenma.

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The Japanese should start to educate themselves about national security

now---right now.

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Regards, Rod Armstrong"

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Michael Molenda 2010-08-23

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日本の安全保障:NBR Fouram, Rod Armstrong [軽井沢だより]

http://dorflueren.blog.so-net.ne.jp/2010-08-23-3


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