The sudden acceleration trouble of Prius

Hi, Shoji,

I hear what you're saying.  And I think most American car buyers agree with you.  Toyota cars, especially the Prius, are highly regarded.  The Toyota brand is a very strong one, and people will continue to buy Toyotas.

.

Of course, people are wondering if there really is some sort of electronic problem with certain Toyota models.  But in the past few days there are more news stories questioning the truth of some of the reports of rapid acceleration and questioning why Toyota is receiving so much bad publicity. 

.

One theory is that Toyotas have no more problems and no more recalls than other brands, but that people are suddenly paying more attention.  Another theory is that a few Toyota drivers are trying to profit from the confusion by reporting "phantom" problems, hoping to receive some compensation (although it appears that Mr. Sikes is NOT trying to do this).  Some journalists have started to wonder if the Toyota problems are being magnified by someone who would profit from the decline of Toyota.

.

Of course, most writers are still pursuing the original theory--that Toyota has problems in its electronics software and is unwilling to admit it, just as most manufacturers--domestic or foreign--are slow to admit problems that have huge implications. 

.

I don't know.  I'm still waiting for objective evidence about the problems.

.

Regards,

Michael 

..

今回の記事掲載以前に Mikeに送信した私のｍａｉｌの内容：

１． ＧＭのＮＵＭＭＩ撤退により、トヨタの危機が来ると予想

２． トヨタは提携継続を希い、ＨＶ技術の無償提供を提案

３． トヨタ単独では、米国内生産能力を減らすべきではないか?!

４． 鳩山政権の反米路線への警告ではないか?!

５． オバマのバイアメリカンが背景にあるのではないか?!

６．Prof. David Gilbert を通じて技術情報漏洩の危機

７．下院公聴会でトヨタ副社長はETCSに欠陥なしを主張する

８．訴訟社会の米国で、トヨタは苦戦するだろう

９． 2月の日本でのPriusは断トツの人気車種だ

１０． HVで先行しているトヨタの特許優位を他社は崩せない

１１．トヨタは米国でセールをするが、Mikeも買ったらどうか?!

１２．我々は今回の事件で日米友好関係を損なってはなず、

１３．悲惨な太平洋戦争を忘れてはならない!!

..

Ａｎａｌｙｓｉｓ of Toyota data

I am attaching a very interesting commentary on the Toyota "sudden acceleration" problem. It appeared in the "NBR Japan-US Discussion Forum"

http://nbrforums.nbr.org/

.

Here is the statement:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - .

The Washington Post has an interesting article on the Toyota uncommanded acceleration issue by the CEO of the auto pricing and news service, Edmunds.com, Mr. Jeremy Anwyl. It is at

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/03/15/AR2010031501693.html 

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/03/15/AR2010031501693.html  

.It seems that Mr. Anwyl commissioned 25 people to comb through more than 760 thousand records of complaints (of all sorts) filed with the NHTSA, complaint by complaint, and sort out all those alleging uncommanded acceleration of any vehicle of model year 2005 or later, stopping with September 2009 to avoid complaints stimulated by stories of Toyota problems. These totaled approximately 1,290 for all the major makes put together, of which approximately 530 were complaints about Toyota products. The incidence complaints about Toyota vehicles was 4.81 per hundred thousand while the average incidence for all other major makers was 1.59 per hundred thousand.

This discrepancy is obviously quite great and standard statistical tests confirm that there is no practical possibility that it could have arisen by chance. That is to say that even before there was any publicity the incidence of complaints about Toyota uncommanded acceleration was far higher than that for vehicles in general.

.

Mr. Anwyl does not make a point of it, but the incidence of complaints about Ford vehicles is 3.12 per hundred thousand, which also differs from the general average by more than is at all likely to be due purely to chance.

.

Why has the NHTSA not alerted us all to this menace on the highways? For one thing, Mr. Anwyl informs us that their complaint records are a mess. He tells us, "After reading each complaint since model-year 2005, we found that 30 percent of the original complaints were miscategorized; more than 26 percent were duplicates; and hundreds were not complaints but merely comments or suggestions." No doubt

Congress will take the NHTSA severely to task for this, with roars of popular approval. Whether people will be so eager to staff the agency better is less certain.

.

Beyond such questions, however, it is a very attenuated menace indeed, with fewer than one in twenty thousand Toyotas having been the subject of a complaint, and fewer than one in sixty thousand vehicles generally. Moreover, as Mr. Anwyl points out, attempts to duplicate some of the complaints lead one to conclude that they are simply not consistent with the design of the vehicles involved.

.

Nevertheless, it is difficult to explain why the incidence of complaints should be so much higher for Toyota (and to a lesser extent for Ford) than for other makes on the basis that they are all illusory. After all, why should illusions be so much more common for those two makes?

.

As for the public and hence press fascination with the story, that seems easy enough to explain. First of all, "no brakes" is a common and almost universal nightmare, making stories of supposedly actual uncommanded acceleration especially titillating. Moreover, a very substantial portion of the population finds satisfaction in raising up idols and the pointing out their feet of clay. We have only to look at the Tiger Woods story to see this in action. I do not think this is unique to Americans.

.

Because of the very great rarity of uncommanded acceleration complaints and their often elusive nature it will be very challenging to track down the causes of actual incidents and impossible to resolve all doubts.

.

In the meantime Toyota's sales are likely to suffer some fairly lasting damage. It is interesting that the many well validated incidents of acutely dangerous products from China have not caused a similar revulsion against Chinese goods. It is safe to say that toxic Chinese consumer products have killed far more Americans than all the uncommanded Toyota acceleration incidents put together. Personally, I go out of my way to avoid Chinese goods which might carry safety implications, but would feel quite safe in driving a Toyota (albeit in fact I drive a Mazda and a Subaru).

----------

William D. O'Neil

Analysis for Decision

[e-mail]

or [e-mail]

"http://www.analysis.williamdoneil.com/">http://www.analysis.williamdoneil.com/ 703.256.4146 or 703.256.0066

.Michael   2010-03-17

コメント 2

Dear Mike
I am always impressed with your fair and objective comments. It seems that the situation on Toyota’ matter are changing almost every day due to revelation of new facts.

I cannot blame the nationalistic stance of US mass media against this problem, because people are always nationalistic. They have to write news for them.

I have been involved in machine tool industry all though my business carrier. The automotive　industry has been buying more than 40 % of all out put of the industry.

Naturally I have been watching Toyota for a long time. I think Toyota made its fame by manufacturing technology. The legendary book “ Toyota manufacturing System” was published more than 40 years’ ago. The book influenced automotive companies not only in Japan but also in the world. It gave influence to almost all manufacturing industries and spread influence to service and other industries. Their quality control system became a bench mark throughout the world.

I read a comment by one American journalist stating as if Toyota have grown rapidly over night. This is not true. They have built up their present system over their entire history of 80 years or so.

However, in my opinion they must have become complacent due to their great success. Also they should have known that when they reached the top of the world, they will face the strongest wind. They were not prepared for this.

I think that Mr. Toyoda lied when he stated that he did not know the problem until early December. He took the matter lightly. He did not how to react.Toyota themselves must not have a risk management team.

Another point they should be blamed is that Toyota is a nationalistic company. They had the article of incorporation prohibiting a foreigner to be a director. I did not know it is still effective or not. But all 29 directors are Japanese　as “Economist” pointed up.

Anyway they harried too fast when they saw the summit.

I have a full trust on their capability. I am sure that they will solve the problem and will start as a re-born organization soon. Otherwise whole Japan will sink. I don't want to see this.

Sincerely　Yours,
T. Takayama
高山　武久


by Takehisa Takayama (2010-03-17 21:27) 

米国トヨタの販売減の動向によっては、かってのダイムラーや三菱の米国撤退と同じ道を辿るのか予断を許さない。これはオバマのバイアメリカン政策と鳩山民主政権の反米路線とも無縁ではない。
他方、千葉県で起きた新型プリウス（レンタカー）の玉突き事故はEDR(Event Data Recorder)の記録から、ブレーキを踏んでいないとして、運転手が書類送検された。苦情は116件あると云われるが、今後は急減すると思われる。
by ぼくあずさ (2010-03-19 07:01)